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178 Section 301 Exclusions Expire on November 9: The Chapter-by-Chapter Map

Computed from the official USTR “Index of Current Exclusions” (dated September 9, 2025) joined live against our HTS extract (23,193 lines) and our Section 301 taxed-line universe (7,045 HTS8 codes); every figure on this page is recomputed from the datasets at build time.

At 11:59 p.m. eastern time on November 9, 2026, all 178 remaining China Section 301 product exclusions lapse. They were extended one final time on December 1, 2025 (90 FR 55232) as part of the trade truce announced on November 1, 2025 — and, unlike the extension chain itself, that notice carried an unambiguous sunset. Goods entered on or after November 10, 2026 pay the underlying List rate again: 25% on Lists 1–3, 7.5% on List 4A. On a $100,000 shipment, that is $25,000 of additional duty appearing on a single entry — per entry, not per year.

The Federal Register notice does something unusual for a tariff action: it names the mechanism precisely. Two chapter 99 headings carry the whole program, and our own pipeline holds both rows verbatim:

• 9903.88.69 — effective June 15, 2024, “through November 9, 2026”, covering the exclusions granted under U.S. note 20(vvv)(i)–(iv) — the reinstated and COVID-era exclusions, 164 provisions;
• 9903.88.70 — effective January 1, 2024, likewise “through November 9, 2026” — the fourteen solar-manufacturing exclusions of note 20(www).

Competitors have published countdown stories. What nobody publishes is the product-level map: which actual HTS lines wake up on November 10 with a 25% point hanging over them. So we parsed the official index of all 178 provisions and joined every statistical reporting number against our HTS extract.

Where the 178 exclusions actually live

The 178 provisions reference 163 distinct currently-active ten-digit statistical reporting numbers. Joining them against the current schedule shows why exclusion tracking is a maintenance job and not a lookup: 140 of the 163 numbers match a live ten-digit line exactly, 14 have drifted to new suffixes (their eight-digit families still exist), and 9 have vanished from the schedule entirely as USITC renumbered categories — including the July 1, 2026 statistical changes that forced USTR to issue conforming amendments in September and again on October 7, 2026.

The skew is the story. Machinery, electronics and precision instruments — exactly the capital goods where buyers told USTR in the September 2025 comment round that Chinese sourcing could not yet be replaced — hold more than half of all active exclusion lines. One hundred of the 178 provisions cover more than one statistical line; the widest, 20(vvv)(iv)(24), stretches across five lines from binoculars (9005.10.0040) to vehicle seats and mattress supports (9401/9404).

Inside the machinery core

Drill one level below the chapter totals and the cluster around fluid handling is striking: pump casings, pump covers, plastic pump parts valued under $3, and non-screw compressors for vehicle air conditioning each hold their own provision, with successive renumberings preserved as historical clauses inside the same note. The solar set is similarly concentrated: every note 20(www) machine points at just three active lines — 8486.10.0000, 8486.20.0000 and 8486.40.0030 — the ingot, wafer and cell-making machines of the polysilicon-to-module chain, plus two 9404.90 lines for solar-supported mattresses that rode along in the original grants.

What expiry costs, line by line

An exclusion does not change the MFN rate; it shields a specific product from the Section 301 additional duty stacked on top. When the shield drops, the stack returns at the product's List assignment. Of the 163 active statistical lines, 122 sit in eight-digit families present in our taxed-line universe, and 153 of the 178 provisions join to at least one underlying line assessed at 25% in our pipeline (which covers Lists 1–3; List 4A's 7.5% tier sits outside that dataset). Among the 140 exact-joined numbers, 52 sit in families whose general column is duty-free while 88 carry positive MFN rates. For those 88, expiry does not merely restore the 25% — it compounds with MFN, MPF/HMF fees and any other chapter 99 measures in effect. That stacking arithmetic is the same one we walk through in our stacked-tariffs decoder; only the trigger date here is fixed by statute-like notice language rather than by a trade-remedy filing.

Schedule drift is the quiet compliance risk

The nine fully-retired numbers are the sharpest lesson. A broker who matched a client's catalog against the exclusion list in 2024 and never refreshed it is now matching against numbers that no longer exist — for example 9013.80.9000 (LCD devices, split into new subheadings) or 9401.90.1085 (seat parts, renumbered). USTR itself has had to chase the renumbering with two conforming-amendment notices in five weeks (four exclusions on September 2, 2026; the shredder-parts provision 20(vvv)(i)(20) on October 7, 2026, whose number moved from 8479.90.9496 to 8479.90.9596 effective July 1, 2026). If the government's own crosswalk needs continuous patching, a spreadsheet built once will not survive contact with the schedule.

Four steps before November 9

1. Pull every entry summary since January 2024 and flag lines filed under 9903.88.69 or 9903.88.70 — those are your excluded entries, not your catalog guesses.
2. Match each flagged ten-digit statistical number against the 163 active numbers listed in the official USTR index linked under Sources; treat any 2024-era list as stale if it has not been re-checked since the July 1, 2026 statistical changes.
3. Reprice the November 10 scenario: customs value × 25% (Lists 1–3) plus the MFN rate you already pay, run per SKU in our tariff calculator.
4. If the margin hit is material, decide early between repricing, re-sourcing, or filing-time strategies such as first-sale valuation — and set a watch on the Federal Register, because a late extension would change step 3 overnight.

We maintain exclusion coverage as part of our monitoring pipeline and will update the chapter map the moment USTR publishes anything that moves the sunset. If you want the refreshed map in your inbox instead of re-checking this page, sign up for the change alerts; bulk catalog-vs-exclusion matching is available on the paid tiers (see pricing).

Frequently asked questions

What happens to my duty rate when the Section 301 exclusions expire on November 9, 2026?

Goods entered on or after November 10, 2026 lose exclusion protection and pay the underlying List rate again - 25% for Lists 1-3, 7.5% for List 4A - on top of the normal MFN duty. On a $100,000 customs value that is an extra $25,000 of additional duty for a List 1-3 product.

Which HS chapters have the most products riding on the expiring exclusions?

Machinery and electronics dominate. Chapter 84 carries 52 of the 178 provisions touching 37 ten-digit lines, chapter 85 has 35 provisions over 27 lines, and chapter 90 has 26 provisions over 23 lines. Furniture (ch. 94), plastics (ch. 39) and fish and crustaceans (ch. 03) follow far behind.

How do I check whether one of the 178 exclusions covers my product?

Pull your entry summaries and look for additional-duty lines filed under HTSUS 9903.88.69 or 9903.88.70, then match your ten-digit statistical number against U.S. notes 20(vvv) and 20(www) to subchapter III of chapter 99. The parsed index of all 178 provisions and their current statistical reporting numbers lives in our public data repository.

Will the Section 301 exclusions be extended again?

They have been extended repeatedly: May 2024, June 2025, September 2025, and December 2025 through November 9, 2026, after the November 1, 2025 announcement that China would extend its own exclusions through December 31, 2026. As of October 15, 2026 no further extension had been published, so model the expiry cost while watching the Federal Register.

Method and sources: USTR, “Notice of Product Exclusion Extensions,” 90 FR 55232 (Dec. 1, 2025), FR Doc 2025-21671; USTR “Index of Current Exclusions” (Sept. 9, 2025 edition, enumerating the provisions of notes 20(vvv)/20(www)); conforming amendments 91 FR 56538 (Sep. 2, 2026) and FR Doc 2026-20511 (Oct. 7, 2026); USITC Harmonized Tariff Schedule extract (generated 2026-10-09); our own chapter 99 pipeline snapshot (retrieved 2026-10-10) and Section 301 origin mapping (retrieved 2026-10-12). Provision parsing and joins are reproducible from the datasets linked in this article's repository; see also our Section 301 lists primer, the chapter 99 action census and the stacked-tariff math.